Vestas’ recommendations to mitigate inaccurate energy production assessments: • Standardise the methodology for conducting performance assessments from PCV tests • Transparency in the measurement process and range of variables used for performance assessments • Further development and application of the performance families concept to calculate the loss factor 99.8% accuracy of Vestas’ warranted power output Global consistency in analytical prediction methods and measurement campaigns allow Vestas to provide power curves that are specifically warranted to your project, unlocking business case certainty, and thus, more optimisation opportunities. Energy production estimates significantly impact your business case assumptions Applying a loss factor of 0.2% instead of 2.5% has an impact of >1 additional percentage point on the Internal Rate of Return (IRR)**. While seemingly small, even a reduction of 0.1% in the expected performance or loss factor means a 0.05% increase in the IRR – a significant economic impact both on the project financing structure and the estimated revenues. Over the project’s lifetime, this equates to approximately EUR 1M in increased revenue**, as well as increased financial competitiveness of the investment. Additionally, investment risks increase if there is a high deviation in the consultant’s track record of expected performance calculations. These calculations also impact the cost of energy. Project developers can plan their revenue strategies more aggressively by strategically selecting turbine models with proven and high expected performance. In an auction environment, this choice allows more competitive bidding to secure larger volume without sacrificing profit. Vestas’ fleet delivers on expected performance Vestas is committed to optimising our customer’s business cases with our solutions, including verifying power curve accuracy from turbine modelling to actual, field proven power plant testing. Experience and knowledge from more than 100 GW of wind turbines installed globally is used to continuously validate and improve the quantitative methods applied to estimate the energy output of our wind turbines. Vestas’ power curves are rigorously tested internally and externally with turbine type tests*** and through scenario-based analysis comparing different climatic conditions. UL AWST and DNV GL have evaluated a database of more than 300 projects using 19 different Vestas turbine variants across diverse operational and environmental conditions. Both consultancies have validated the accuracy of Vestas’ warranted power output: 99.8% with a standard deviation of 2.5%, which is more precise and significantly higher than the industry average (97.5% with standard deviation of 3.6%)5. This validated average expected performance is applicable to Vestas’ fleet regardless of turbine platform or climatic condition, further demonstrating Vestas’ consistent performance and accurate analytic prediction methods. *Turbine performance is not synonymus with turbine output: a turbine’s output is affected by particular climatic conditions, while its performance may remain constant, as the turbine might continue to produce the maximum amount of energy possible for these conditions. **Case: PPA 45€/MWh flat, 3.600 Gross hours, 252 MW, 25y operational life; leverage below 80%; all in CAPEX >900k€/MW ***Type test: performance evaluation conducted by Vestas on each turbine variant during the proptotye phase, which is then used for turbine type certification by an external party. Sources: 1. O’Loughlin, B., Lightfoote, S., Bernadett, D., Brower, M., ‘2018 Backast Study Methods Update’, UL AWST 2018 2. Lee, J. C. Y., Stuart, P., Clifton, A., Fields, M. J., Perr-Sauer, J., Williams, L., Cameron, L., Geer, T., and Housley, P., ‘The Power Curve Working Group’s Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods’, Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2019-69, in review, 2019. 3. Geer, T., ‘An Advanced Understanding of the Impact of Deviations in Turbine Performance’, EWEA 2015, http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Geer-TaylorIm pact-of-turbine-performance.pdf 4. de Vecchi, R., Matesanz Gil, A., ‘Analysis of Vestas Turbine Performance’, Vestas do Brazil Energia Eólica Ltda 2019 5. Brower, M. C., ‘Wind Turbine Performance: Issues and Evidence’, AWS Truepower 2012, http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wp-content/uploads/proceedings/Analysis_of_Operat ing_Wind_farms/EWEA%20Workshop%20Lyon%20-%205-2%20Michael%20Brower%20 AWS%20Truepower.pdf ©Vestas 2020 This document was created by Vestas Wind Systems A/S and contains copyrighted material, trademarks and other proprietary information. All rights reserved. No part of the document may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means such as graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, taping or information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written permission of Vestas Wind Systems A/S. All specifications are for information only and are subject to change without notice. Vestas does not make any representations or extend any warranties, expressed or implied, as to the adequacy or accuracy of this information.
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